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Against the backdrop of the widespread uncertainty regarding the US strikes on Venezuela, the seizure of leader Nicolás Maduro, and statements from Trump that the US will “manage” the country and “take back the oil”, a single fact remains evident – they set a profoundly disturbing precedent.

Past Interference and a New Threshold Crossed

The United States possesses a dark record of meddling, military incursions, and control in that part of the world, but this past Saturday morning saw its initial significant armed assault on South American land. “The preeminence of America in this region is now beyond dispute,” Mr Trump declared.

The choice to militarily strike another sovereign country and capture its head of state – only a few days after he stated a desire for negotiations – has still wider repercussions. It should alarm us all.

Deep Instability for a Nation in Crisis

Venezuelans have suffered under an oppressive, corrupt, and inept government under Mr Maduro, largely considered to have stolen the last election. They now face profound uncertainty at best. Mr Trump has indicated that Mr Maduro’s deputy, Delcy Rodríguez would do as the US says, and brushed aside conservative dissident leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a viable alternative.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the temporary head of state, has so far sounded notes of defiance – and other factions of the headless administration are even more hardline.

A Shift in Global Role

A man who was elected pledging to stop foreign wars now says he is “willing to put soldiers into combat”. Redesignating the Department of Defense as the Department of War was more than posturing. He does not see the world’s superpower as a global policeman; he is transforming it into a rogue state.

He holds the view that the US’s might allows it to do as it wishes with scant penalty: witness the strikes on Nigeria, on Iran’s nuclear facilities. He promises that control of Venezuela's petroleum means this new undertaking “won’t cost us a penny”.

An Illegal Assault on Sovereignty

George W. Bush launched the invasion of Iraq on a lie. But this illegal attack came absent any United Nations mandate or the consent of the US Congress; Democrats were not even informed and say they were actively misled in briefings. Mr Trump doesn’t seek to bend international norms, but to obliterate them.

Put aside the signal this transmits to global powers like Russia and China, and consider the destination for America itself. While the raid allegedly resulted in the deaths of 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, there were no American fatalities. Mr Trump’s growing sense of invincibility will surely embolden more reckless actions.

The Thin Pretext and True Motives

Few believe the excuse that this is related to the drug trade. Venezuela is only a small transit route for cocaine; Mr Trump recently granted clemency to the past Honduran leader Juan Orlando Hernández for related criminal convictions. Mr Trump himself has stated plainly that he is motivated by the lure of oil as well as machismo, the ideology of some in his administration, and the quest for a legacy as domestic popularity wanes.

A Muted Global Reaction and Institutional Irrelevance

The international response, especially in Europe, has – with a few principled deviations – been alarmingly quiet. That’s not because of Mr Maduro’s sins, but fear of Mr Trump’s wrath. The forceful statement from UN Secretary General António Guterres was notable, but this episode underscores the institution’s growing irrelevance.

Mr Trump’s anti-interventionist domestic base could potentially force him to focus on domestic issues once more – but escalating insurance prices, economic unhappiness and other domestic scandals make foreign conflicts more appealing.

We are not yet 12 months into his presidential term. World leaders may come to rue the day if they stay silent now, with the question of which nation is next looming.