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New Yorkers will learn who will be their next mayor this Tuesday, in a contest that will decide who runs and protects the nation's most populous metropolis at a time when Donald Trump has threatened to send armed forces to the city.

Against that backdrop, New York has experienced a race for mayor that has matched two very different Democrats against each other. The contest has turned into an acrimonious showdown, marked by accusations of racism and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two leading candidates that could have major implications for how the Democratic party performs in next year's congressional races.

The Progressive Challenger

In the progressive corner is the democratic socialist, the young democratic socialist whose rapid ascent and people-powered movement has attracted international attention. Representing the old guard is Andrew Cuomo, the former Democratic New York governor now campaigning independently – and benefiting from the backing of ultra-rich donors and big business.

With days to go, it is the progressive, the one-time underdog who defeated Cuomo in the Democratic primary who is solidly positioned as the leading candidate. Mamdani, who has campaigned on a platform of economic justice and promised to halt rent increases for about 2 million New Yorkers, has led his rival by double-digits across all surveys taken in the fall, and it is very much the younger man's election to lose.

A Bitter Contest

However, Cuomo, who stepped down as the state's leader in recent years amid accusations of sexual harassment, has made it clear he will fight to the end, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt manner. He has criticized his opponent's goals as unrealistic, and in the final stretch chuckled along as a radio host made Islamophobic remarks about the candidate, who is a Muslim. Two weeks ago, Cuomo was widely condemned as racist after sharing an artificial intelligence video that included a series of racist stereotypes and showed his opponent freeing a group of criminals.

This represents a particularly ugly end to an election that could be critical to the path that the party, floundering in its reaction to Trump's power moves, takes in the coming years.

Broader Consequences

If Mamdani secures a clear victory, the party establishment who have declined to support his bid will be forced to reckon with a platform that has resonated with Americans' anger at inequality, soaring price rises and the political elite. It would be difficult for Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries not to adopt at least some of Mamdani's ambitious ideas about economic justice, given the newcomer has created an excitement within the party arguably not seen since Bernie Sanders ran for president eight years ago.

However, should Cuomo, who had been expected to win easily in the Democratic primary, achieve a surprising comeback win, it could reinforce the party's existing approach of cautious, lackluster resistance – a tactic that has angered the party base. A NYC rejection of the progressive's progressive, positive message could persuade party leaders that the best plan is to stick to the political center – even as surveys show the current iteration of the party is widely disliked across the country.

Campaign Energy

Residents of the city seem to prefer the Mamdani vision. Polls show that his backers are much more excited about their candidate than his opponent's supporters, something that has been apparent during the race. Mamdani's engaging content on digital platforms, his optimistic vision for the city and his willingness to actually venture out and connect with voters in the city has drawn an army of more than 50,000 supporters, many of them young or first-time voters.

Personal Attacks

Yet, the former governor, 67, isn't giving up. And with the stakes stacked against him, the ex-leader has turned to negative campaigning in recent weeks.

Following extensive throwing basically everything at his opponent to see what might resonate, Cuomo has concentrated on attacking the candidate personally. He has called his rival, who was of Ugandan origin to South Asian heritage, an "radical", and appeared on Fox Business for an interview with a rightwing host, where Cuomo asserted New York “will not survive” Mamdani as city leader. It hit bottom recently, when the former governor chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said Mamdani would “cheer” another 9/11-style incident.

Political Landscape

The line of attack mirrors much of what Trump, who has sent the national guard to the capital and warned to take similar action to NYC, has said about Mamdani, and perhaps that is expected. A group of wealthy residents, including some who donated to Trump in the last presidential race, have pumped millions into trying to get the independent elected, as other powerful voices have pressured Curtis Sliwa to drop out from the race.

Candidate Backgrounds

As far as the Cuomo camp, and his wealthy backers, are concerned, it should never have come to this point. When the assemblyman, one of 150 New York state assembly members, launched his campaign for mayor in last year, few had heard of him, and in reality, few even paid attention.

Cuomo, by contrast, entered smoothly into the race in March 2025 and became the instant favorite. He was the political heavyweight who apparently held every edge. The quintessential political insider, he had married a political dynasty member and worked in a Democratic presidency. He assumed office as New York governor in 2011, seventeen years after his father, Mario Cuomo, left office from the same position.

The progressive, who was elected to the state legislature in 2020, does not have the same political heritage. But his dedication to providing free buses and free childcare – along with the rent control promise – present a brighter outlook of the future than Cuomo’s pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his promise to hire more police officers.

Recent Challenges

Still, the candidate has faced some challenges in the final phase, after footage emerged appearing to show him suggesting the NYPD and the IDF were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the police is on your throat, it’s been influenced by the IDF,” Mamdani said in the recording, filmed at a DSA gathering in 2023. The progressive, a longtime critic of Israel who has said the country is engaging in atrocities in Gaza, suggested he was criticizing cooperative programs between the city police and IDF.

Emotional Response

With the election nearing, Mamdani seems to have gained sympathy and support, however, for his response to his opponent's increasing rhetoric.

Mamdani addressed the independent's 9/11 remarks in an emotional video. In it, the candidate remembered how, when he first ran for state assembly, a family member advised to him that he did not have to disclose about his religion. It was a lesson, Mamdani said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been taught “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the shadows of our city. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where followers of Islam could express their true selves, and that if we were to step out from those shadows, then it is in those shadows that we must leave our faith.”

Speaking to the actions of his opponents, who has alleged Mamd