Starmer's Backers Initiate 'Stop Andy Burnham' Effort to Prevent Mayor's Parliamentary Comeback
Key supporters of Labour leader Keir Starmer have allegedly kicked off a concerted initiative to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a comeback to parliament. This move follows the stepping down of a Manchester MP, which has sparked an upcoming by-election.
Major Hurdles in the Candidate Selection Process
A number of figures on the Labour Party's powerful national executive committee (NEC) have apparently predicted it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to navigate the candidate selection procedure. This is primarily due to the significant number of Starmer loyalists on the body who are anxious to head off any future leadership challenge.
The Labour party machine is said to have mobilised following the revelation of the MP's intended resignation, with party figures and MPs raising concerns about the considerable expense and electoral danger of a resulting mayoral race in Greater Manchester.
Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns
Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Previously, he prompted anger within No 10 and among cabinet ministers when he stated that numerous MPs had urged him to run for the Labour leadership.
It has long been believed that he is seeking a return to parliament to potentially contest the party leadership if a challenge to Sir Keir emerge. Nevertheless, supporters of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against overstating the level of any planning, suggesting he is deeply committed to his current role and would only re-enter Westminster if he felt he had something to contribute.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.
Current Climate and Public Approval
Amid opinion polls indicating Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham is seen as the sole prominent Labour figure with favourable public approval ratings.
If Mr. Burnham decide to run, several hurdles remain. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then win the byelection against challenges from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all prior to any potential leadership challenge.
The 'Stop Andy' Campaign
High-ranking Labour sources have said that a "Stop Andy" operation is already in progress, with the party's organisation being closely managed by senior aides of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister personally said that the by-election procedure was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to stop talking about potential leadership challenges.
Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's departure was confirmed, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Financial and Political Dangers
NEC members have allegedly cited not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could redirect around £500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.
A number of insiders also shared concerns about Reform UK attempting to fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major symbolic victory for them.
Role of the Unions and Democratic Concerns
Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. There is also speculation the committee could impose an all-female shortlist to prevent his candidacy.
Yet, one Burnham ally warned against presuming the NEC would automatically block his candidacy, despite Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.
The unions hold a significant proportion of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently keeping their counsel, sources suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything seen as meddling from Downing Street.
The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
Electoral Challenges
The constituency in question has a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is likely to mount a strong campaign, building on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on stronger footing in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could face a challenge from pro-Gaza independents.
Should Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to launch a leadership challenge, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by a number of on the backbenches.
The resigning MP confirmed he was resigning due to declining mental health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He also remains under a parliamentary standards investigation concerning his involvement in an inappropriate online group.
