Daily Killings in Mexico Fall 37% In President Sheinbaum, According to Official Data

The mean figure of everyday killings monthly in the country has decreased by more than a third since President Claudia Sheinbaum assumed power, as stated by recent administrative statistics. But, security analysts have cautioned that homicide figures might not point to improved national safety.

Notable Decline in Daily Numbers

There was an mean of almost 55 murders a day in the month of November compared with almost 87 when the President began the presidency in the previous September. This announcement was delivered by the head of the nation's federal safety agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s regular press briefing on a recent Tuesday.

“The figures in murders that we’ve had during these months is very notable,” the President stated, adding that in November the lowest figure of homicides were recorded for any November in the last 10 years.

Recent Context and Government Plan

Violent drug cartel internal conflicts, combined with the administration's highly militarised operations to combat the trafficking organizations, have made Mexico’s homicide rate rise sharply in the past few years. The rate peaked at a maximum of 36,773 killings in 2020, as reported by the country’s national statistics agency.

That gave Mexico a homicide rate over four times greater than the US. Since then, murders have been on the decrease, dropping to 33,550 in the last calendar year. Claudia Sheinbaum has credited her national security approach for an ostensibly steeper decline in homicides this year.

At a media briefing in August, the head of state said: “There is a plan, we have monitoring of the plan, and we have specific monitoring municipality by municipality in some cases. The approach is effective. And we have to persist at it each day.”

The central components of Sheinbaum’s safety strategy encompass:

• Strengthening Mexico’s federal guard.
• Enhancing intelligence and investigation work.
• Greater collaboration between various departments.

Expert Warnings and Data Concerns

Nevertheless, security analysts urged caution that focusing solely on homicide statistics to paint a picture of improved security was misleading. This is especially true given the increase in other criminal activities such as people going missing.

“That would be very good news if this were a decrease, but I think we shouldn't just concentrate on the murder data and say: ‘Well then, good,’” commented Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexico's cartels. “I would be guardedly optimistic.”

Per the policy research thinktank Mexico Evalúa, murders in total dropped by more than 20% in the initial 10 months of this year versus the identical timeframe last year. Yet, missing persons cases have increased by 15% and in certain states have increased by as much as 200%.

“Numbers on murders is no longer valid for estimating the reality of violence,” said Armando Vargas, a safety analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have police and prosecutors who do not have the capacity or the will to accurately recognize and classify bodies. Second, organised [criminals] … have the capability to mask violence through disappearances.”

Vargas pointed out that using month-to-month averages of daily homicides was similarly problematic because it may hide periods when there were particularly high levels of killings.

“Employing the daily average renders surges of violence invisible,” he stated.

Arrests and Seizures as Measures of Progress

An area where the government can cite the effectiveness of its security strategy is on arrests and seizures. Nearly 40,000 suspects were arrested between October 2024 and November 2025 for high-impact crimes, per official data. More than 20,000 weapons were taken and 311 tonnes of narcotics seized.

“Donald Trump cannot claim President Sheinbaum of not acting, because actually she is accomplishing a lot with these thousands of arrests, many thousands of seizures, and all the operational weakening of organised crime. It’s extremely in political terms beneficial,” commented Vargas.

Ongoing Unrest and Public Anger

Yet despite these efforts, Mexico continues to be beset by high bloodshed, with several regions in the grip of cartel-driven bloodshed. In the previous month there was a prominent killing of a well-liked local official in the state of Michoacan, one of 10 mayors murdered in the past 12 months.

A short time later, many thousands of young people protested in the capital and throughout the country to express their outrage at graft and cartel violence.

“The federal government presents [data] in a way to build a narrative of security. Politically it’s extremely effective, socially it’s extremely questionable,” the analyst said.